An engineering team can be absolutely confident in its idea. The technology works in the laboratory, the calculations add up, the prototype has the required characteristics. But six months after production starts, it turns out that almost nobody is ready to buy the development. The market is already saturated with similar solutions, large players have quickly closed this need, and the few buyers who remain are guided by a competitor’s alternative solution protected by a patent.
Such situations arise not because the team worked the process poorly. It is simply that the engineering viability of an idea and its market demand are two different questions. The first is resolved in the laboratory. The second requires separate work — an analysis of technology markets in Russia and, if the development aims at more, beyond it.
Let us examine what such an analysis consists of, how to assess new technologies before the main resources are invested in them, and why market assessment cannot be separated from patent assessment.
What an analysis of the technology market in Russia and worldwide includes
The purpose of the analysis is not to prove that an idea is “interesting”, but to show that there is solvent demand for it, free room among the alternatives and a legal possibility of bringing the product to market.
A full analysis usually includes several layers:
- Technology trends — that is, tendencies: which directions are developing actively, which are beginning to lose interest, which technical approaches are displacing older ones. If an idea follows a growing trend, it has a better chance of finding a buyer. If it belongs to an industry or direction that has already passed its peak of development, demand may turn out to be significantly lower than expected.
- Competitive environment — which companies and scientific groups work in this field, which products are already on the market, and at what stage of development the other participants are.
- Patent landscape — which technical solutions are already protected, who owns the rights, and in which countries protection is in force. This is a separate source of data, which often reflects real activity in the industry more accurately than open publications and news.
- Demand and potential buyers — companies, industries or segments that really need such solutions and are ready to pay for them: to buy a ready product, license the technology or take part in development.
It is important to understand the difference between several types of markets that are often confused. The market of technologies for production is, as a rule, a B2B environment: the buyer evaluates a solution through the consequences of its implementation — the technology’s effect on cost, productivity gains and compliance with regulations. Here the decision-making cycle is long and the cost of error is high. Technologies of the world market follow different rules: different regulatory requirements, different patent systems, a different competitive environment in each country. A technology with no competitors in Russia may find itself in a dense patent field in Asia or Europe. And the technology exchange market is a separate mechanism: technology transfer, licensing of developments, sale of rights. It often turns out to be a more realistic path for a team than launching production on its own.
How to assess the market of advanced technologies
Assessing the market of advanced technologies is rarely built on a single source of information. Work is needed in three directions at once: patent activity, competitors and developers, and real demand. Each direction shows what is not visible from the others.
Analysis of patent activity
Patent databases are one of the few sources that record the real engineering activity of an industry, and not just marketing statements.
The first thing to pay attention to is the dynamics of application filing in a specific technical field over recent years. A growing number of patents usually indicates that companies and developers are actively investing in this direction and consider it promising. A decline may indicate either fading interest or, conversely, the maturity of the technology, when the main solutions are already protected and there are fewer new breakthroughs.
The second is the geography of patenting. If a patent is in force in only one country, the right holder’s interest is most likely local. If a patent family covers several jurisdictions, it means the right holders consider the solution valuable enough to protect it in several markets — and this is also a signal of commercial potential.
Separate attention should be paid to the situation where there are almost no patents for a similar solution. This may mean two opposite things:
- either the direction is free and the solution is really new
- or the technology is too obvious, is poorly protected by a patent, or the right holders prefer not to disclose it through a patent application but to keep it as know-how.
The difference is fundamental, and it must be checked separately rather than drawing a hasty conclusion from the number of patents alone.
Analysis of comparison and development
Patent activity shows who is protecting rights. But those who do not yet patent may also be working on a similar technology: early-stage startups, university laboratories, internal R&D units of large corporations.
Here it is useful to look not only at direct competitors with a ready product, but also at the technological readiness level of their development, pricing policy, sales channels and the volume of investment attracted. A sharp growth in investment in a specific technological niche almost always serves as a leading signal: investors often notice market potential before it becomes visible in sales volume.
It is also worth tracking mergers, acquisitions and licensing deals in this field. If a large manufacturer buys a smaller company with a similar development or concludes a license agreement, this confirms that the market is ready to pay for similar solutions — the question is then not only about demand, but also about the terms of entry.
Analysis of skills
Even if a technology is technically advanced and economically efficient, this does not guarantee sales. A separate check is needed to determine whether there is a real buyer ready to implement this solution right now.
Indicators of demand may include industry inquiries and tender documentation, where customers formulate technical requirements, discussion of unsolved production problems, discussions at specialized conferences and, where applicable, technology transfer deals in the relevant fields. They show that companies are ready to buy developments from outside, and not only develop their own.
It is useful to distinguish interest in a topic in general from the readiness of a particular industry to pay for a specific technical solution. Publications saying that a direction is developing do not yet mean that manufacturing enterprises are ready to increase budgets for implementing new technologies.
How to determine the prospects of technologies for production
Prospectiveness is not a separate indicator, but the result of considering several factors at the same time. A technology may be promising from an engineering point of view but enter the market too early — before manufacturing enterprises are ready to implement it because of the high cost of change. Or too late — when larger players have already taken the main niches and protected key technical solutions with patents, leaving only peripheral applications.
Therefore, when assessing prospects, several questions should be considered. What will happen if technological trends in the industry continue to develop in their current direction? Is there free space in the patent landscape for new solutions, or are the main approaches already closed by valid patents? How high is the entry threshold — can one enter the market independently, or is it more sensible to transfer a ready development to a large player? What is the structure of implementation costs of the proposed solution for the main buyer in the market of technologies for production?
Separately, it is worth thinking about the path of commercialization. The goal is not always to build one’s own production. Sometimes a more realistic scenario is to license the relevant solution to a company that already has production and a sales system, or to organize a technology transfer jointly with a specialized enterprise. This path requires less capital investment and leads to a result faster, especially if the team lacks the resources to launch serial production independently.
How to link market and patent analysis
One of the typical mistakes is to treat market and patent analysis as two loosely connected tasks. The marketing team studies market volume and buyer behavior, while lawyers separately check patent risks before the product is launched. At the moment when the results of this work are combined, it may turn out that a segment that is promising from the market point of view is densely closed by other people’s patents, while a niche that is free from the patent point of view is needed by no one.
It is more correct to combine this data from the very beginning. Patent activity is not only a legal question about risks, but also a leading indicator of market interest: growth in the number of applications in a specific field usually precedes growth in commercial activity or accompanies it. And data on market demand helps to understand which directions in the patent landscape deserve closer study and which can be left without detailed analysis.
This approach makes it possible to enter a space where market interest is already noticeable and patent density is still low — it is precisely there that a new development has a better chance of taking a position without conflict with other people’s exclusive rights. And vice versa: if a segment looks attractive in terms of market volume but is saturated with patents of large players, it is wiser to adjust the technical solution or change the market entry strategy in advance. For example, to focus on a narrower niche or negotiate a license rather than prepare for independently promoting technologies on the market.
How “POSINT” helps to find technology trends
Combining patent data, the competitive situation and market signals manually is a labor-intensive task. Patent documents number in the millions, are published in different languages, use different terminology and often disclose the technical essence of a solution through complex legal wording.
Our “POSINT” service uses artificial intelligence to analyze large volumes of patent and scientific-technical information. Instead of searching only by keywords, the system works with the meaning of technical solutions, which makes it possible to find relevant patents and publications even when a similar technology is described in completely different terms in another field.
This makes it possible to see faster the dynamics of application filing in a specific direction, identify the main right holders and developers, assess in which jurisdictions the technology is patented more actively, and compare this data with the overall picture of interest in the topic. In essence, “POSINT” helps to turn scattered patent documents into a readable map of a technological direction — with growth points, zones of high competition and potentially free niches.
To begin a new development, this is especially important at the very earliest stage — before the main resources are invested in the project. Understanding the patent landscape helps to assess more accurately whether it is worth entering the technology market in Russia, whether it makes sense to focus immediately on international market technologies, or whether it is better to consider the path of licensing and technology transfer to a specialized partner.
Conclusion
The decision to launch a new development cannot be made solely on the grounds that the technology works and looks promising from an engineering point of view. Trends, the competitive environment, the patent landscape and real demand must be assessed separately. And these data should be considered not separately, but as a single picture.
“POSINT” helps to combine patent and market analytics at an early stage: to see where the industry is heading, who has already taken the key positions and where room remains for new technical solutions. Before the team invests resources in a development that may turn out to be needed by no one or legally restricted.
Planning to assess the prospects of new technologies? Use “POSINT” to study the patent landscape, track technology trends and understand whether it is worth entering the market — before the main investment is made in the project.